Is the United States' Swimming Dynasty Ending in Tokyo 2020?

 Pictured above: Olympic Aquatic Center at Tokyo 2020. With Michael Phelps and Missy Franklin retiring, the US national team has lost two of their greatest swimmers and respected leaders. As the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics come up in late July, the question arises: is the US national team’s swimming dynasty ending?

Every swimming season, new faces emerge while legends seal their legacies. Qualifying times gradually trend downwards, technique is emphasized more, science-proven workouts and diet plans make for better endurance. But, even as all of these drastic changes are made, one thing remains certain: the unwavering dominance of USA swimming. Ever since the era of Michael Phelps, Ryan Lochte and Missy Franklin, the US has separated itself head and shoulders above the competition; whether the Olympics, FINA Worlds, or any other international swimming event, the USA has shown that they are exceedingly good at getting gold.

But does that change this year?

While other countries are waiting for the Olympics in late July, well equipped with an arsenal of dynamic young athletes ready to dethrone the king, the US national team has been preparing to overcome changes and deal with top swimmers like Michael Phelps, Missy Franklin, and Conor Dwyer announcing retirement.

Phelps, Franklin, and Dwyer accounted for 20 total medals, 15 of which were gold, during the 2012 London and 2016 Rio Olympics. Their loss can cause more problems, though. When veterans like Phelps and Franklin retire, the ripple effect isn’t just physical, it isn't just a loss of speed; the effect is more mental. Phelps was the idol and hero of many current swimmers on the national team, and his absence creates a hole that not many can fill. Good leadership is valuable yet rare, and the great US national team is no exception to that rule. Not many are willing to step into the gigantic footsteps of past captains like Phelps and Franklin, ready to lead a band of young talents towards a first place medal or a personal goal. But, distance-freestyler Katie Ledecky is striving to fill that role. Now that Phelps and Franklin are gone, Ledecky understands that experienced athletes on the team will play a significant role in the development of younger athletes, and as a veteran of the Olympics, she feels ready for that job.

Perhaps the biggest change to Olympic swimming this year, though, is the new events. As well as the mixed-gender medley relay, the Olympic Committee has also decided to add the men’s 800 meters and the women’s 1,500 meters freestyle. With a limit of six swimmers for each individual event, the US has been scrambling to find swimmers that specialize in these events, many of which have little to no experience in the Olympics. Experience plays an undoubtedly huge role in performance at high-stake international competitions. The atmosphere in the stadium and the booming echo on the pool deck can really unnerve rookies; when nervous, the human body tightens up, causing muscles to cramp and oxygen to be depleted faster. Placing in events, even of longer distance, are separated by milliseconds, so cramping or extra breathing isn’t an option. This gives a huge advantage to veteran swimmers that have been there before.

With all of these challenges trailing close behind, seemingly dragging the team down into the depths of the pool, is the USA’s swimming dynasty ending? Not so fast. Even if they don’t directly swim, retired swimmers like Phelps play significant roles as mentors, sharing past experiences and helpful knowledge to nervous athletes, traveling to Tokyo to watch and cheer the team on.

And in reality, the stressful Olympic atmosphere and new events won’t hurt US swimming. Yearly competitions like Phillips 66 Nationals and NCSAs ensure that current Olympic athletes, and even the next generation of swimmers, have seen their share of large-scale meets. And for special athletes like Katie Ledecky, the best female distance swimmer in the world, the 1,500 meters is a great addition, yet another event that she excels at. When asked about the new events, Ledecky responded, “The 1,500 freestyle is now an Olympic event, and that's one of my best events, so that just means I'll be able to swim that in the Olympics hopefully.” Ledecky has broken the world record for the event six times so far, and her readiness to swim the 1,500 has shown in her new, tougher practice regimen.

It's easy to think that, as the legendary and exciting era of Michael Phelps ends, swimming in the US will become a forgotten afterthought, where kids don’t look at famous swimmers like they do at Patrick Mahomes or Giannis Antetokounmpo, and slowed by challenges and surprises, US swimming is doomed to fail. But that’s not true. While other countries gain strength, the bright future of US swimming is being pushed forwards by rising prospects like Luca Urlando, Carson Foster, and Horace Greeley’s Matt Fenlon as they dominate in Junior Nationals, while established young stars like Caeleb Dressel and Simone Manuel shatter barriers on the international level.

Luca Urlando after a stellar swim in TYR Pro Swim Series (Clovis). In this race, Urlando broke Phelps’ NAG (National Age Group) record in the 200 meters butterfly, going a blistering 1:53.84.

So in July, under the anxious watch of the American public back home, filled with the tense silence of jittery emotion and overwhelmed by the thundering crowd cheering them on, the US swimmers will swim fast and swim bold while doing what they do best: getting gold.